Skip to content

Pacers at Heat · Sat, Mar 6 · 3:00 PM ET

Indiana at Miami. Here is where each team has the edge.

IndianaMiami

3:00 PM ET
Loading
Pregame win chance

The win-chance line starts at tip-off.

Every basket moves it.

From team Elo ratings, home court and rest. How this works

Loading win probability…

01Where the edges are

Based on 2025-26

Pacers edges

No clear mismatch in Indiana's favor.

Heat edges

No clear mismatch in Miami's favor.

An edge is where one team ranks top 5 on a four-factor battle and the other ranks bottom 8. How edges work

Using last season's numbers until both teams have played 10 games this season. Rosters may have changed.

02Tale of the tape

Based on 2025-26
INDRankStatRankMIA
111.728thOffensive rating13th117.5
119.624thDefensive rating12th115.2
-7.926thNet rating13th+2.3
100.38thPace1st102.8
53.323rdEffective FG %17th54.2
12.316thTurnover %4th11.2
21.729thOffensive rebound %17th25.4
19.622ndFree throw rate14th21.2
55.624thOpponent eFG %7th54.0
11.222ndForced turnover %17th12.2
74.115thDefensive rebound %8th74.9
21.823rdOpponent FT rate9th19.3

Game plan

Loading game plan…

03Form and season series

Pacers3-7 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. L
  7. W
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L

Heat4-6 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L

2025-26 series: Sat, Dec 27 IND 116, MIA 142 · Sat, Jan 10 MIA 99, IND 123 · Sun, Mar 29 MIA 118, IND 135

04Key players

Current roster · 2025-26 numbers