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Raptors at Heat · Wed, Mar 3 · 7:30 PM ET

Toronto at Miami. Here is where each team has the edge.

TorontoMiami

7:30 PM ET
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Pregame win chance

The win-chance line starts at tip-off.

Every basket moves it.

From team Elo ratings, home court and rest. How this works

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01Where the edges are

Based on 2025-26

Raptors edges

No clear mismatch in Toronto's favor.

Heat edges

No clear mismatch in Miami's favor.

Key battles

  • Miami's offense protects the ball (4th), but Toronto's defense forces turnovers (4th). Watch the turnovers.

An edge is where one team ranks top 5 on a four-factor battle and the other ranks bottom 8. How edges work

Using last season's numbers until both teams have played 10 games this season. Rosters may have changed.

02Tale of the tape

Based on 2025-26
TORRankStatRankMIA
117.015thOffensive rating13th117.5
114.15thDefensive rating12th115.2
+2.911thNet rating13th+2.3
97.522ndPace1st102.8
54.615thEffective FG %17th54.2
11.57thTurnover %4th11.2
25.516thOffensive rebound %17th25.4
20.417thFree throw rate14th21.2
54.07thOpponent eFG %7th54.0
13.54thForced turnover %17th12.2
74.018thDefensive rebound %8th74.9
22.225thOpponent FT rate9th19.3

Game plan

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03Form and season series

Raptors5-5 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
  6. L
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. W

Heat4-6 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L

2025-26 series: Mon, Dec 15 TOR 106, MIA 96 · Tue, Dec 23 TOR 112, MIA 91 · Tue, Apr 7 MIA 95, TOR 121 · Thu, Apr 9 MIA 114, TOR 128

04Key players

Current roster · 2025-26 numbers