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Heat at Thunder · Thu, Dec 31 · 8:00 PM ET

Miami at Oklahoma City. Here is where each team has the edge.

MiamiOklahoma City

8:00 PM ET
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Pregame win chance

The win-chance line starts at tip-off.

Every basket moves it.

From team Elo ratings, home court and rest. How this works

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01Where the edges are

Based on 2025-26

Heat edges

No clear mismatch in Miami's favor.

Thunder edges

No clear mismatch in Oklahoma City's favor.

Key battles

  • Miami's offense protects the ball (4th), but Oklahoma City's defense forces turnovers (2nd). Watch the turnovers.

An edge is where one team ranks top 5 on a four-factor battle and the other ranks bottom 8. How edges work

Using last season's numbers until both teams have played 10 games this season. Rosters may have changed.

02Tale of the tape

Based on 2025-26
MIARankStatRankOKC
117.513thOffensive rating7th119.8
115.212thDefensive rating1st108.5
+2.313thNet rating1st+11.2
102.81stPace16th98.5
54.217thEffective FG %4th56.1
11.24thTurnover %2nd10.8
25.417thOffensive rebound %28th22.3
21.214thFree throw rate13th21.3
54.07thOpponent eFG %2nd51.9
12.217thForced turnover %2nd14.0
74.98thDefensive rebound %11th74.4
19.39thOpponent FT rate3rd18.4

Game plan

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03Form and season series

Heat4-6 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. L
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. L
  10. L

Thunder6-4 in the last 10

  1. L
  2. L
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. L
  8. W
  9. W
  10. W

2025-26 series: Sun, Jan 11 MIA 112, OKC 124 · Sat, Jan 17 OKC 120, MIA 122

04Key players

Current roster · 2025-26 numbers