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Game plans · Tuesday, April 14

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Mavericks at Pacers

How the Mavericks beat the Pacers

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Mavericks shots come in the paint (8th most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

How the Pacers beat the Mavericks

  1. AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Pacers shots come from midrange (7th most), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDAL offenseIND defenseIND offenseDAL defense
At the rim64.6% (24th)66.3% (17th)64.1% (26th)66.2% (16th)
Paint45.4% (11th)47.1% (27th)45.0% (15th)45.5% (24th)
Midrange39.4% (24th)45.4% (30th)39.8% (22nd)42.7% (23rd)
Corner 337.1% (25th)39.4% (22nd)37.2% (23rd)37.2% (6th)
Above-the-break 333.2% (28th)34.2% (8th)35.1% (15th)34.2% (9th)

Matchups on Tue, Apr 14

2 games
  • Heat at HornetsFinal

    How the Heat beat the Hornets

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Heat defense there ranks 16th (34.7% allowed).

    How the Hornets beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at SunsFinal

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Suns

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    How the Suns beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.