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What changed · Last season (2025-26)

Players whose game really moved. Each with the likely reason, and how much should hold.

  • 393Players checked
  • 447Probably real
  • 180Partly real
  • 273Left out as noise

The 2026-27 season does not have enough games yet, so this shows 2025-26: each player's last 25 games (or his games since a role change or a trade) against the rest of his season. Once players have about 20 games this season, the page switches to this season by itself.

Biggest real changes

279 of 393 players flagged

Showing 10 changes, biggest first (size after the "is it real?" pull). Clear filters

Brook LopezC · LACProbably real
3-point rate-25 pts

33 games since Feb 4 vs the 42 games before

Lopez's 3-point rate is down 25 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (47% vs 72%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42. Probably real: about 75% should hold.

  • Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • Starting roleHe started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42
  • New teammateBennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG

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Brook LopezC · LACProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share-19 pts

33 games since Feb 4 vs the 42 games before

Lopez's above-the-break 3 share is down 19 points over his 33 games since Feb 4 (41% vs 60%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • Starting roleHe started 33 of 33 games, up from 7 of 42
  • New teammateBennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG

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Bennedict MathurinG-F · LACProbably real
3-point rate-18 pts

26 games with LAC vs the 28 games before

Mathurin's 3-point rate is down 18 points over his 26 games with LAC (26% vs 44%). The likely reason: he moved from IND to LAC (first game Feb 10). Also the starting role change: he started 1 of 26 games, down from 24 of 28. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • New teamHe moved from IND to LAC (first game Feb 10)
  • Starting roleHe started 1 of 26 games, down from 24 of 28

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Jordan MillerG · LACProbably real
3-point rate-16 pts

26 games since Feb 20 vs the 34 games before

Miller's 3-point rate is down 16 points over his 26 games since Feb 20 (19% vs 35%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Darius Garland joined the rotation on Mar 2 and played 29.0 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateDarius Garland joined the rotation on Mar 2 and played 29.0 MPG

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Nicolas BatumF-G · LACProbably real
Minutes-7.1

27 games since Feb 2 vs the 47 games before

Batum's playing time is down 7.1 minutes a game over his 27 games since Feb 2 (13.0 vs 20.0). The likely reason: Bennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG. Probably real: about 80% should hold.

  • New teammateBennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG

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Jordan MillerG · LACProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share-12 pts

26 games since Feb 20 vs the 34 games before

Miller's above-the-break 3 share is down 12 points over his 26 games since Feb 20 (12% vs 24%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Darius Garland joined the rotation on Mar 2 and played 29.0 MPG. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateDarius Garland joined the rotation on Mar 2 and played 29.0 MPG

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Bennedict MathurinG-F · LACProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share-12 pts

26 games with LAC vs the 28 games before

Mathurin's above-the-break 3 share is down 12 points over his 26 games with LAC (23% vs 35%). The likely reason: he moved from IND to LAC (first game Feb 10). Also the starting role change: he started 1 of 26 games, down from 24 of 28. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • New teamHe moved from IND to LAC (first game Feb 10)
  • Starting roleHe started 1 of 26 games, down from 24 of 28

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Derrick Jones Jr.F-G · LACProbably real
3-point rate-11 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 25 games before

Jones Jr.'s 3-point rate is down 11 points over his last 25 games of the season (35% vs 46%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Darius Garland joined the rotation on Mar 2 and played 29.0 MPG. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateDarius Garland joined the rotation on Mar 2 and played 29.0 MPG

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John CollinsF-C · LACPartly real
Corner-3 share-10 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 44 games before

Collins's corner-3 share is down 10 points over his last 25 games of the season (14% vs 24%). The likely reason: James Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Bennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG. Partly real: about 60% should hold.

  • Teammate outJames Harden (36 MPG before) left the team, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateBennedict Mathurin joined the rotation on Feb 10 and played 28.0 MPG

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Kobe SandersG · LACPartly real
Minutes-5.8

9 games since Mar 25 vs the 59 games before

Sanders's playing time is down 5.8 minutes a game over his 9 games since Mar 25 (14.9 vs 20.7). No clear cause shows up in our data; it could be an injury, a coaching choice or the schedule. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

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How this works

Windows

Every night we split each player's regular season (8+ games on each side) in one of three ways, in this order: the day he joined a new team; the game after which his minutes and usage shifted the most (a simple two-part split); or, if neither moved much, his last 10 games. Until the new season has enough games (about 20 each for most players) we use last season and its last 25 games, which catches the roles that changed at the trade deadline.

Is it big?

A change counts as big when it reaches:

  • Points: 4 points a game
  • Minutes: 5 minutes a game
  • Usage: 4 points
  • TS%: 4 points
  • 3P%: 5 points
  • 3-point rate: 8 points
  • Rim share: 8 points
  • Midrange share: 8 points
  • Corner-3 share: 8 points
  • Above-the-break 3 share: 8 points
  • Assists: 2 assists a game
  • Rebounds: 2.5 rebounds a game

Players need 15+ minutes a game on one side. Shooting needs 40+ threes or 60+ shots on each side.

Is it real?

Both windows are pulled toward the player's whole season by a fixed amount of weight M, the sample size where a stat is half skill and half luck: (window x n + season x M) / (n + M). A change is shown only if the pulled gap keeps at least half of the raw gap: Probably real keeps 60% or more, Partly real keeps 50 to 59%, anything less is Mostly noise and stays off the feed.

M values: 3P% 501 threes, TS% 218 shots and points 9.7 games, from Is it real?; minutes 9.4, usage 17, assists 18.9, rebounds 18.1, 3-point rate 13.9, rim share 18.2, midrange 16.8, corner 3 21.6 and above the break 15.4 games, measured on 1,766 pairs of back-to-back 10-game stretches in 2025-26. That is why 3P% changes almost never make it: threes are mostly luck until a player has taken hundreds.

Causes

Rules, each with a number. Points split exactly into minutes, shot volume and efficiency. Assists and rebounds split into minutes and per-minute rate. TS% and 3P% split into shot diet (league FG% from the spots he shot from) and shot-making (the rest). Context: a new team, a move into or out of the starting five (starting lineups from our stint data), key teammates (25+ minutes before) who missed most of the window, a new rotation player (20+ minutes), and opponents' defensive rating. We keep causes that explain 15%+ of the change and show the top three.

What we measured

Backtest on 2025-26: we ran this as if the season stopped on 3 dates and checked each flag against the rest of the season. Probably real changes kept 71% of their size on average (we predicted 66%) and 88% kept going the same way (301 flags). Partly real kept 60% (predicted 55%). Mostly noise kept 39% (predicted 33%), so the pull is a little cautious, which is the safe side.

Latest run: 393 players checked, 447 probably real and 180 partly real changes, and 273 big swings left out as mostly noise.

What it cannot see

Injuries a player played through, coaching decisions, matchups and schemes, and anything off the box score. Missing teammates are read from who played, not the injury report. Causes are rough splits, not proof; when nothing in our data fits we say so.