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What changed · Last season (2025-26)

Players whose game really moved. Each with the likely reason, and how much should hold.

  • 393Players checked
  • 447Probably real
  • 180Partly real
  • 273Left out as noise

The 2026-27 season does not have enough games yet, so this shows 2025-26: each player's last 25 games (or his games since a role change or a trade) against the rest of his season. Once players have about 20 games this season, the page switches to this season by itself.

Biggest real changes

279 of 393 players flagged

Showing 9 changes, biggest first (size after the "is it real?" pull). Clear filters

Gui SantosF · GSWProbably real
3-point rate-20 pts

32 games since Jan 26 vs the 36 games before

Santos's 3-point rate is down 20 points over his 32 games since Jan 26 (44% vs 64%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 35 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 27 of 32 games, up from 3 of 36. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outJimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 35 games, plus 1 more key player out
  • Starting roleHe started 27 of 32 games, up from 3 of 36
  • New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG

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Gui SantosF · GSWProbably real
Above-the-break 3 share-11 pts

32 games since Jan 26 vs the 36 games before

Santos's above-the-break 3 share is down 11 points over his 32 games since Jan 26 (32% vs 44%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 35 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 27 of 32 games, up from 3 of 36. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outJimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 35 games, plus 1 more key player out
  • Starting roleHe started 27 of 32 games, up from 3 of 36
  • New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG

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Al HorfordC-F · GSWProbably real
3-point rate-12 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 20 games before

Horford's 3-point rate is down 12 points over his last 25 games of the season (59% vs 71%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (32 MPG before) played only 4 of 43 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Kristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • Teammate outJimmy Butler (32 MPG before) played only 4 of 43 games, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG
  • Starting roleHe started 12 of 25 games, up from 1 of 20

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Stephen CurryG · GSWProbably real
Points-5.3

Last 25 games of the season vs the 18 games before

Curry's scoring is down 5.3 points a game over his last 25 games of the season (24.4 vs 29.6). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 25.9 to 23.0, after Kristaps Porzingis joined the rotation. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 25.9 to 23.0 (about 61% of the change)
  • New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG
  • EfficiencyHis TS% went from 65.5% to 62.2% (about 25% of the change)

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Gary Payton IIG · GSWProbably real
Rim share-10 pts

27 games since Feb 5 vs the 46 games before

Payton II's rim share is down 10 points over his 27 games since Feb 5 (50% vs 60%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 31 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Kristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

  • Teammate outJimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 31 games, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG

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Quinten PostC · GSWProbably real
3-point rate-9 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 42 games before

Post's 3-point rate is down 9 points over his last 25 games of the season (57% vs 66%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) played only 1 of 33 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Kristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.3 MPG. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

  • Teammate outJimmy Butler (31 MPG before) played only 1 of 33 games, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.3 MPG

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Will RichardG · GSWPartly real
Usage-5.2 pts

15 games since Mar 10 vs the 54 games before

Richard's usage is down 5.2 points over his 15 games since Mar 10 (9.2% vs 14.4%). The likely reason: Charles Bassey joined the rotation on Apr 5 and played 20.2 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

  • New teammateCharles Bassey joined the rotation on Apr 5 and played 20.2 MPG

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Gui SantosF · GSWProbably real
Corner-3 share-9 pts

32 games since Jan 26 vs the 36 games before

Santos's corner-3 share is down 9 points over his 32 games since Jan 26 (11% vs 20%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 35 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also the starting role change: he started 27 of 32 games, up from 3 of 36. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

  • Teammate outJimmy Butler (31 MPG before) missed all 35 games, plus 1 more key player out
  • Starting roleHe started 27 of 32 games, up from 3 of 36
  • New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG

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Al HorfordC-F · GSWPartly real
Corner-3 share-9 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 20 games before

Horford's corner-3 share is down 9 points over his last 25 games of the season (12% vs 21%). The likely reason: Jimmy Butler (32 MPG before) played only 4 of 43 games, plus 1 more key player out. Also a new teammate: Kristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG. Partly real: about half should hold.

  • Teammate outJimmy Butler (32 MPG before) played only 4 of 43 games, plus 1 more key player out
  • New teammateKristaps Porzingis joined the rotation on Feb 19 and played 23.7 MPG
  • Starting roleHe started 12 of 25 games, up from 1 of 20

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How this works

Windows

Every night we split each player's regular season (8+ games on each side) in one of three ways, in this order: the day he joined a new team; the game after which his minutes and usage shifted the most (a simple two-part split); or, if neither moved much, his last 10 games. Until the new season has enough games (about 20 each for most players) we use last season and its last 25 games, which catches the roles that changed at the trade deadline.

Is it big?

A change counts as big when it reaches:

  • Points: 4 points a game
  • Minutes: 5 minutes a game
  • Usage: 4 points
  • TS%: 4 points
  • 3P%: 5 points
  • 3-point rate: 8 points
  • Rim share: 8 points
  • Midrange share: 8 points
  • Corner-3 share: 8 points
  • Above-the-break 3 share: 8 points
  • Assists: 2 assists a game
  • Rebounds: 2.5 rebounds a game

Players need 15+ minutes a game on one side. Shooting needs 40+ threes or 60+ shots on each side.

Is it real?

Both windows are pulled toward the player's whole season by a fixed amount of weight M, the sample size where a stat is half skill and half luck: (window x n + season x M) / (n + M). A change is shown only if the pulled gap keeps at least half of the raw gap: Probably real keeps 60% or more, Partly real keeps 50 to 59%, anything less is Mostly noise and stays off the feed.

M values: 3P% 501 threes, TS% 218 shots and points 9.7 games, from Is it real?; minutes 9.4, usage 17, assists 18.9, rebounds 18.1, 3-point rate 13.9, rim share 18.2, midrange 16.8, corner 3 21.6 and above the break 15.4 games, measured on 1,766 pairs of back-to-back 10-game stretches in 2025-26. That is why 3P% changes almost never make it: threes are mostly luck until a player has taken hundreds.

Causes

Rules, each with a number. Points split exactly into minutes, shot volume and efficiency. Assists and rebounds split into minutes and per-minute rate. TS% and 3P% split into shot diet (league FG% from the spots he shot from) and shot-making (the rest). Context: a new team, a move into or out of the starting five (starting lineups from our stint data), key teammates (25+ minutes before) who missed most of the window, a new rotation player (20+ minutes), and opponents' defensive rating. We keep causes that explain 15%+ of the change and show the top three.

What we measured

Backtest on 2025-26: we ran this as if the season stopped on 3 dates and checked each flag against the rest of the season. Probably real changes kept 71% of their size on average (we predicted 66%) and 88% kept going the same way (301 flags). Partly real kept 60% (predicted 55%). Mostly noise kept 39% (predicted 33%), so the pull is a little cautious, which is the safe side.

Latest run: 393 players checked, 447 probably real and 180 partly real changes, and 273 big swings left out as mostly noise.

What it cannot see

Injuries a player played through, coaching decisions, matchups and schemes, and anything off the box score. Missing teammates are read from who played, not the injury report. Causes are rough splits, not proof; when nothing in our data fits we say so.